Weather Conditions

NOAA NWS - National Hurricane Center  
Report Generated: 02:10 PDT Wed 09 Oct 2024 / 09:10 UTC Wed 09 Oct 2024  Refresh Page  

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090517
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas
continue to become better organized. Although environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional
development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form
today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to
east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for
further development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for some limited development of this
system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands late
Thursday into Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 21.2, -47.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 28   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

000
WTNT33 KNHC 090837
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
 
...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 47.8W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A slight reduction in 
forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is
forecast during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and 
tonight, followed by weakening through early next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 28   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

166 
WTNT23 KNHC 090836
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  47.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  47.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  47.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N  48.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N  49.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N  50.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N  50.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N  48.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N  46.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N  36.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N  28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N  47.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 28   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 090837
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024
 
Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has 
changed little during the past few hours.  Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B 
microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure 
has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of 
the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component.  A 
blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an 
initial intensity at 70 kt.
 
Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight 
intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie 
moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and 
over warm oceanic surface temperatures.  Afterward, the global 
models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW 
Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie.  This feature is expected to 
spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical 
Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the 
cyclone.  Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is 
forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a 
post-tropical cyclone in 3 days.
 
Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt, 
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 
couple of days.  By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in 
forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the 
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast.  
Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in 
response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from 
the northeast.  The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is 
based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.
 
Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049 
UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 21.2N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 22.0N  48.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 23.0N  49.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 23.9N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 25.4N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 27.6N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 30.0N  46.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  13/0600Z 34.3N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  14/0600Z 35.4N  28.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

000
FONT13 KNHC 090837
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024               
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  

Hurricane Leslie Graphics   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:39:31 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Milton (AT4/AL142024)   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 24.5, -85.4 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 907 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 17   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090854
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
 
...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah
River.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South
Carolina
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 85.5 West. Milton is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight.  A
turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and
Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday
morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western
Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb 
(26.78 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.  This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula
and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida
tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.
 
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across
parts of central and southern Florida.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
 

Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 17   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 090854
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  907 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  85.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.9N  84.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.4N  82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N  80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 130SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.8N  76.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N  73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N  69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N  62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  85.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 17   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090855
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024
 
Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category
5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Satellite and
Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a
compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core.  Based on
aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the
maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt.  The wind field of
Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted
based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT
passes.  There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across
portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of
Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.
 
Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located
over the Greater Antilles.  This motion should generally continue
until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur
late tonight or early Thursday morning.  After the hurricane reaches
the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another
trough approaches the system from the west.  Milton should exit
Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and
accelerate eastward after that.  The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models.  It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south.  Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.
 
The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin 
to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some
weakening.  However, there is high confidence that Milton will 
remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and 
maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state.  The 
cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on 
Friday and gradually weaken.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.
 
Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while 
it moves across Florida.  Additionally, a large region of tropical 
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back 
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal 
boundary and beginning extratropical transition.  Damaging winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well
outside the forecast cone.  This is a very serious situation and
residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local
emergency management officials.  Evacuations and other preparations
should be rushed to completion.  Milton has the potential to be one
of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula.  If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.
 
2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula.  Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.
 
3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 24.5N  85.4W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 25.9N  84.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 27.4N  82.6W  115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  10/1800Z 28.2N  80.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  11/0600Z 28.8N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 29.1N  73.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/0600Z 29.7N  69.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0600Z 31.3N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/0600Z 32.1N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts
 

Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024

000
FONT14 KNHC 090854
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024               
0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   6( 6)  12(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  1  11(12)  11(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  1  14(15)  38(53)   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  1  42(43)  22(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   7( 7)  13(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  1  47(48)  37(85)   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   9( 9)  37(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   2( 2)  16(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2  44(46)  44(90)   2(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   6( 6)  52(58)   7(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   1( 1)  30(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  2  45(47)  43(90)   2(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   6( 6)  53(59)   7(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   1( 1)  30(31)   3(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  2  42(44)  41(85)   3(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   4( 4)  39(43)   4(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   1( 1)  15(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2  31(33)  30(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  2  22(24)  20(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   7( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   8(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  5   8(13)   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
NAPLES FL      34 13  66(79)   3(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
NAPLES FL      50  1  20(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
NAPLES FL      64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  5  76(81)   4(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
FT MYERS FL    50  1  28(29)   5(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
VENICE FL      34 27  72(99)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50  2  85(87)   4(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
VENICE FL      64  X  66(66)   6(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 
TAMPA FL       34  5  89(94)   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
TAMPA FL       50  1  67(68)  12(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
TAMPA FL       64  X  38(38)  17(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  2  50(52)   8(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  2   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   5( 5)  24(29)  12(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Hurricane Milton Graphics   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:56:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:56:58 GMT

Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 03:23:32 GMT

Hurricane Milton Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 04:12:23 GMT

Hurricane Milton Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:56:46 GMT

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Local Statement for Key West, FL   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 458 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Local Statement for Miami, FL   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 502 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 503 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 506 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 507 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Local Statement for Charleston, SC   NOAA NWS - NHC Page  
Issued at 509 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024